Tariff Suspension Temporarily Halves Impact on Container Trade

Clarksons’ analysis reveals that US President Donald Trump’s 90-day suspension of import tariffs, excluding those from China, currently impacts 6% of global container trade, equating to 29 million TEU, compared to 11% before the moratorium.

On April 8, a day before additional tariffs were to be imposed on US imports from all countries, Trump announced a 90-day suspension, with the exception of Chinese imports, which have been subjected to elevated tariffs of 145%. Trump stated that the increased tariffs on China were a response to China’s retaliatory tariffs on US imports.

Clarksons estimates that the elevated tariffs on imports from China could impact 63 million tonnes of seaborne container trade.

The brokerage indicated that a notable short-term decline in Transpacific container trade volumes is anticipated amid the uncertainty and heightened tariffs on US imports from China.

Clarksons remarked, “A medium-term reduction in trade appears likely due to higher tariffs and the macroeconomic effects on key consumer markets. The impact is expected to be most pronounced on Transpacific trade, given the 90-day ‘pause’ on higher tariffs for countries other than China.”

US-China bilateral trade constitutes only 1.5% of global seaborne trade but holds greater significance in the container sector, Clarksons noted.

Clarksons added that a resolution of trade tensions could present an upside. However, tariffs might also disrupt service networks, leading to congestion or idle ships.

However, should container volumes plummet due to crippling tariffs, the downsides could be exacerbated if Red Sea transits resume.