English
2024/12/29
Trump’s Tariff Policies to Reshape Asia’s Supply Chain in 2025
The anticipated return of Trump to the White House is expected to bring significant changes to the trade landscape in Asia. His “America First” foreign policy, characterized by trade protectionism, high tariffs, and the reshoring of manufacturing, could have profound impacts on China and its neighboring economies.
During Trump’s first term, escalating trade restrictions prompted many companies to shift their supply chains away from China. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future, with countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand becoming preferred destinations for companies looking to reduce their dependence on China due to their robust infrastructure and cost advantages.
However, Asian countries also face significant risks. Widespread tariffs on major export products such as electronics, apparel, and automotive parts could disrupt trade flows.
Automation Disputes Threaten U.S. Ports, New Round of Strikes Looming
Labor disputes at U.S. ports remain a pressing issue. Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) face significant challenges.
Ports along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico handle more than half of U.S. import cargo, playing a crucial role in maintaining supply chain stability. The potential strikes coincide with the peak shipping season ahead of the Chinese New Year, making the start of 2025 particularly precarious. As the January 15, 2025 deadline approaches, shippers, importers, and consumers must brace for potential disruptions that could impact the stability of U.S. port operations next year.
Exporters Rush Shipments to Counter Trump Tariffs
Some exporters from China, Canada, and Mexico are ramping up shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariff hikes under the Trump administration’s new trade policies.
Despite the surge in export volumes, freight rates have remained relatively stable. This stability is partly due to increased capacity across the industry, which has absorbed the growing demand.
What Does the New Shipping Alliance Mean for Shippers in 2025?
The new shipping alliance set to launch in early 2025 is expected to have significant implications for shippers. Operational adjustments during February and March next year may lead to short-term disruptions.
The “Gemini Cooperation” alliance, established by Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, will officially commence in February 2025, boasting a total capacity of 3.7 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). Gemini’s services will cover 26 mainline routes and 32 shuttle services, focusing on east-west trade lanes. The alliance will adopt a “hub-and-spoke” model, where large vessels transport cargo to major hub ports, and smaller vessels then deliver the cargo to its final destinations.
In 2025, shippers will face a more complex carrier operational landscape. Beyond cost and transit time, factors such as route reliability, alliance stability, and risk manageability will play crucial roles in the decision-making process.
